I've never seen this data before like this. Thank you for putting it together! I think it will be a lot clearer if you use different colors for the different age cohorts though.
In projecting future levels of fertility, mortality and international migration, probabilistic methods were used to reflect the uncertainty of the projections based on the historical variability of changes in each variable. The method takes into account the past experience of each country, while also reflecting uncertainty about future changes based on the past experience of other countries under similar conditions. The medium scenario projection corresponds to the mean fertility and mortality and median net migration of several thousand distinct trajectories of each demographic component derived using the probabilistic model of the variability in changes over time. Prediction intervals reflect the spread in the distribution of outcomes across the projected trajectories and thus provide an assessment of the uncertainty inherent in the medium scenario projection.
I've never seen this data before like this. Thank you for putting it together! I think it will be a lot clearer if you use different colors for the different age cohorts though.
It was my pleasure! ☺️
I thought about that, but decided not to. Mostly because it’s a lot of work picking colors when you’re a perfectionist 😅
what is the baseline assumption for the evolution of the fertility rate?
Hi and thanks for reading! :)
This is taken from the website.
Medium scenario projection:
In projecting future levels of fertility, mortality and international migration, probabilistic methods were used to reflect the uncertainty of the projections based on the historical variability of changes in each variable. The method takes into account the past experience of each country, while also reflecting uncertainty about future changes based on the past experience of other countries under similar conditions. The medium scenario projection corresponds to the mean fertility and mortality and median net migration of several thousand distinct trajectories of each demographic component derived using the probabilistic model of the variability in changes over time. Prediction intervals reflect the spread in the distribution of outcomes across the projected trajectories and thus provide an assessment of the uncertainty inherent in the medium scenario projection.
Thanks for the reply. So in all what would the average fertility rate assumption for this chart for the 2025-2100 period?