Less Religious, More Tolerant?
Exploring the link between religion and acceptance of homosexuality from 2004 to 2022.
Religion has always shaped how societies think about social issues — from gender equality to same-sex marriage. I write from Sweden, a country where relatively few people believe in God and where support for human rights is strong. Globally, though, the story is far more complex.
Religion, education, prosperity, and human rights are all closely connected, but it’s not clear which one drives the others. In this post, I want to focus on religious belief and its relationship to attitudes toward homosexuality.
Let’s start with religion.
Importance of Religion
The European Value Study and the World Value Survey are two large-scale and cross-national survey research programs. They both started in the early 1980s and have conducted several waves of surveys asking a large number of questions.
Thanks to these programs, it’s possible to analyze how views on essential topics have changed over the years.
One question that I find particularly fascinating is — How important is Religion in your life? — With the following four responses:
Very important
Rather important
Not very important
Not important at all
In the following chart, I’ve combined the answers “Very important” and “Rather important” to get an idea of how the importance of religion has shifted worldwide between 2004 and 2022.
I’ve selected these years to get values for as many countries as possible and still allow for enough time to see real change.
Note: The years represent the end date for the survey. The survey that ended in 2022, for example, started in 2017.
Chart — How the importance of religion has shifted worldwide
Analysis
There are several patterns to extract from the visualization. Here are the ones that stick out to me. Write in the comments if you find something else that you find interesting.
Restoring national identity
For starters, countries heavily related to the Soviet Union see an increase in the importance of religion. That makes sense because the Soviet Union heavily restricted religious practices and after the fall of communism religion re-emerged as a symbol of national identity.
Western secularization
Western countries see a decline in the importance of religion which reflects an overall trend in secularization tied to modernization, rising individualism, and generational shifts. One slight exception is Germany where we see a minor increase. It’s probably because of the east-west divide where East Germany was a satellite state of the Soviet Union, but recent immigration might also play a part.
Religious strongholds
Lastly, and far from surprising, religion has a significantly higher importance in Muslim countries such as Egypt, Iran, and Indonesia, but also in Nigeria which is primarily Christian. What’s interesting is that the countries with high values in 2004 have seen little or no change in the last twenty years. These societies seem resistant to the secularization trend seen elsewhere
What about China?
It’s also worth pointing out the slight growth in China since that growth represents a large number of people. One reason could be the increase in unregistered Christian “house churches” that have become more popular among urban middle classes.
Is Homosexuality Justified?
Another question in the research survey program is whether the respondent believes homosexuality is justified.
It’s a captivating question because it’s at the core of human rights, and homosexuality remains illegal in several countries. It also has a long and complicated history with religion, tying it neatly to our previous topic.
Many religious texts include passages condemning homosexuality, and historically, major churches and religious institutions have discriminated against gay people. While there is greater acceptance in some religious communities today, many believers across the globe still view homosexuality as a sin.
In the following chart, we can see how the share of people who think that homosexuality is never or rarely justified has changed between 2004 and 2022.
Chart — How rejection of homosexuality have changed worldwide
Analysis
There’s a clear global trend toward higher acceptance of homosexuality, with almost every country in the survey displaying significant progress since 2004. I hope we continue to see this positive trend over the next twenty years and that it spreads to more parts of the world.
Conservative attitudes in religious countries
Most Muslim countries — such as Jordan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey — continue to show very high rejection of homosexuality. While some (like Pakistan, Turkey, and Indonesia) have seen modest declines since 2004, the overall levels remain extremely high. Christian-majority nations in Africa, such as Nigeria and Zimbabwe, also display low tolerance, though Zimbabwe shows a small decrease.
High variation in Asia
Asian countries — China, South Korea, Japan, and others — show a high variance in their acceptance of homosexuality. Japan, which has had strong ties with the West for many years, now shows levels of rejection similar to Spain. China and South Korea remain highly intolerant, lacking both anti-discrimination laws protecting sexual minorities and recognition of same-sex marriages.
An East-West divide in Europe
Most of the countries showing the lowest rejection of homosexuality (apart from Canada and Japan) are in Western Europe. To the east of Germany, tolerance remains lower. Post-communist transitions have produced mixed outcomes: countries leaning toward the West have made rapid progress, while Russia and Belarus have moved in the opposite direction, showing increased intolerance.
Religion & Tolerance
The logical next step is to look at the correlation between the share of people who think that homosexuality is never or rarely justified and the share of people who say that religion is very or rather important in their lives.
This time we’re not looking at change; instead, we focus on the 2022 values, which also gives us data for an additional 29 countries.
Below is a scatterplot with importance of religion on the x-axis and rejection of homosexuality on the y-axis. Instead of dots, I’ve used flags — I trust you’ll recognize them.
Chart - How rejection of homosexuality and importance religion correlate
Analysis
As expected, there’s a clear correlation between the importance of religion and conservative views on homosexuality, with most countries falling into either the “Low Religion / High Acceptance” or “High Religion / Low Acceptance” quadrants.
Low Religion / Low Acceptance
It’s good to see that the “Low Religion / Low Acceptance” quadrant contains relatively few countries, because even if religion and conservative views are strongly correlated, the “High Religion / High Acceptance” scenario is clearly the more desirable outcome. All the countries in “Low Religion / Low Acceptance” are either Asian (such as China and South Korea) or have a strong historical connection to the Soviet Union (such as Russia and Belarus).
What about the future
So what does this correlation mean looking ahead?
Given that the general global trend is towards secularism and tolerance, I expect the next twenty years will bring a significant increase in the number of countries moving into the “Low Religion / High Acceptance” quadrant. Younger generations almost everywhere are more tolerant and less religious, suggesting that attitudes are likely to shift even in conservative countries.
Conclusion
The data paints a clear picture: views on religion and homosexuality have changed significantly in the past twenty years but remain deeply connected.
The long-term trend points towards higher acceptance of homosexuality and lower importance of religion for most countries.
Progress is uneven, with some regions moving quickly while others resist change, but generational shifts and legal reforms suggest the trajectory is moving in the right direction.
Thank you
I hope you enjoyed both my charts and the data itself. If that’s the case, make sure to like, share, and subscribe. I would also love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Have a great day!